Social Security Benefits Could Get Cut to 77% in Ten Years, Unless Congress Acts

What’s The Problem?

The 2022 Social Security Trustees report projects a significant shift in the Social Security program by 2034, where retirees may only receive a fraction of their anticipated benefits without legislative intervention to address funding challenges.

This situation underscores the importance of Social Security as a critical component of retirement income for countless Americans.

In 2020, the Social Security Administration reported that around 50 million retired workers were receiving benefits, funded mainly through a 12.4% payroll tax, equally shared between employees and employers.

The program, however, is facing a demographic challenge. The post-World War II birth rate decline coupled with longer life expectancies suggests fewer workers will support an increasing retiree population.

This shift could deplete the Social Security Trust Fund's reserves by 2034, potentially cutting benefits to 77% of the full amount, barring any policy changes.

How Social Security is Financed

Understanding the financing mechanism of Social Security is crucial to grasping its long-term financial challenges. Essentially, Social Security is sustained through payroll taxes, which are deducted from both employees' and employers' paychecks. As of 2022, these taxes apply to individual annual incomes up to $147,000.

The tax rate dedicated to Social Security is set at 6.2%, meaning both the employee and employer contribute an equal percentage, totaling a 12.4% contribution for each employee's income. Self-employed individuals bear the full burden, contributing the entire 12.4%.

Contributions made by current workers do not accumulate in individualized funds; rather, they fund the benefits of present retirees.

In 2022, for each dollar contributed in Social Security payroll taxes, 85 cents were allocated to the trust fund responsible for disbursing monthly benefits to retirees and their families, including surviving dependents of deceased workers. The remaining 15 cents were directed to another trust fund that supports individuals with disabilities and their families.

The Social Security Trust Fund has recently experienced a surplus, with the amount collected via payroll taxes surpassing the sum distributed in benefits.

However, in the coming decade, the Social Security administration is expected to draw on its reserves, as the number of contributing workers declines relative to the increasing number of beneficiaries, particularly Baby Boomers. This shift results from a lower birth rate following the post-World War II baby boom era (1946-1964), leading to fewer people entering the workforce to support the growing retiree population.      
 
Social Security is a vital element of the retirement income structure, often serving as the main source of income for many retirees.

Described by the National Institute on Retirement Security as a 'three-legged stool' — comprising Social Security, pensions, and personal savings (like 401(k)s or IRAs) — its stability is crucial, especially given the limited availability of pension plans and the unequal distribution of 401(k) benefits.

What Are the Potential Solutions? Need to Push Congress, Lawmakers...

To mitigate this looming shortfall, several potential solutions are being considered.

One option is to modify the maximum wage subject to Social Security taxes. Currently, the cap is set at $160,200 for 2023. Raising or removing this limit could substantially increase the program's funding. Americans earning $100,000 are subject to Social Security taxes on their entire income, whereas individuals with an annual income of $200,000 do not pay Social Security taxes on roughly $39,800 of their earnings. This discrepancy presents a significant opportunity to either increase the maximum income limit subject to Social Security taxes or to consider removing the cap altogether.

Adjusting the age range for claiming Social Security benefits is another approach. The current system allows claims between ages 62 and 70, with full retirement age varying based on birth year. Increasing the full retirement age could reduce financial strain on the system, with many individuals potentially opting for retirement at 65, aligning with Medicare eligibility, but receiving lower Social Security benefits.

Means testing, which ties benefits to other retirement assets, is also being explored. Under this system, individuals with greater personal savings might receive reduced Social Security benefits, targeting the assistance more effectively towards those in greater need. However, this method could introduce complexities and discourage personal savings.

These strategies, individually or combined, aim to maintain the long-term viability of Social Security, balancing retirement income needs with fiscal sustainability.

The Social Security Trustees report highlights the urgency of legislative action to address these challenges and safeguard the program's future.

For individuals, enhancing Social Security income through proactive retirement savings is crucial. Strategies such as maximizing employer 401(k) contributions, investing in individual retirement accounts like Roth IRAs and traditional IRAs, and utilizing advisors and retirement planning professionals like those at PlanEasy is advisable.

In conclusion, despite the anticipated continuation of Social Security benefits post-2034, the potential for reduced benefits underscores the need for immediate legislative measures and individual financial planning to secure retirement stability.